The NBA season opener in the Southwest Division will feel less like a routine warm‑up and more like a clash of futures when the Dallas Mavericks host the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday, Oct 22, 2025, at 7:30 PM CT.
At the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas, the Mavericks roll in as 4.5‑point favorites on the betting board, yet the Spurs arrive with a story that could rewrite the early narrative of the Western Conference.
Why this opener matters
Dallas closed the 2024‑25 campaign at 39‑43 overall and a .500 mark (8‑8) in the Southwest, a record that barely secured a playoff berth and left a lingering sense that the team under‑achieved relative to its talent pool. By contrast, San Antonio limped to a 33‑49 finish, anchored largely by a defense that ranked among the league’s top five in points allowed per game. Both clubs sit on the cusp of a roster overhaul, but the stakes differ: the Mavericks are chasing a return to the 50‑win level they posted in 2023‑24, while the Spurs hope the youthful nucleus can finally translate preseason buzz into regular‑season wins.
The rivalry dates back to the 2024‑25 regular‑season finale on Apr 13, 2025, when Dallas edged San Antonio 115‑108 in a game that featured a rookie showdown between Victor Wembanyama and Cooper Flagg. That meeting set the tone for a spring‑shortened season that left both coaching staffs eager for a fresh start.
Key players and lineups
When the opening tip‑off arrives, the Spurs will likely field a “double‑big” frontcourt anchored by Victor Wembanyama, center and veteran Luke Cornet, a 35‑year‑old who spent the last season in the NBA’s veteran‑by‑example role. Together they form a 15‑foot‑plus interior that analysts have dubbed a “lethal double‑big lineup.”
Unfortunately for San Antonio, guard Darren Fox will sit out the opener with a strained hamstring, giving rookie Dylan Harper a chance to log more minutes alongside sharpshooter Stefan Castle, who is hungry for a breakout.
Dallas, meanwhile, lists point guard Kyrie Irving as a question mark. The star’s health has been a revolving door all summer, and while the team hopes to see him on the floor, his participation remains unconfirmed on the morning of the game.
On the opposing wing, the Mavericks will likely start Cooper Flagg, the 19‑year‑old forward whose physicality evoked memories of a young Kevin Garnett. Flagg’s matchup with Wembanyama is being billed as the marquee duel, a preview of how the two clubs’ strategic identities will clash.
What the analysts are saying
“San Antonio will look to continue preseason momentum on opening night in Dallas,” wrote Jacob Douglas, senior writer at Pounding the Rock, in his Oct 22, 2025, 12:00 AM PDT preview. “The alien and the veteran have been playing together for years during camp; that chemistry could be the X‑factor.”
On the other side of the Atlantic, Kirk Henderson, senior analyst at Mavs Moneyball, highlighted the Flagg‑Wembanyama clash: “Cooper vs. Victor in a season debut is the marquee matchup that who could ask for more.” He added a note of caution, “The Spurs face an adjustment period because Victor missed most of last season; the Mavericks’ experience edge might still win out.”
Fans on a YouTube preview panel split their bets. One commentator, Sean, went with Dallas, saying, “I’m gonna go the Mavericks. They got the better talent now… the home crowd will likely give them the opening night victory.” Roach countered, “Give me the alien and the Spurs to pull off the slight upset and get the victory here on the road.”
Betting odds, crowd factor, and early implications
ESPN BET Sportsbook, operated by PENN Entertainment, Inc., lists the Mavericks as 4.5‑point favorites. The odds reflect Dallas’s deeper roster—players like D’Angelo Russell and Jalen Brunson bring playoff‑proven experience that the Spurs lack.
Nevertheless, the American Airlines Center can hold more than 19,000 fans, and the venue’s roar on opening night may tilt the dice. Historical data from the past five Southwest Division openers shows that home teams win roughly 62 % of the time, a trend that could reinforce the odds.
Beyond the win‑loss column, the result will affect early playoff positioning. A Spurs victory could catapult them into the upper half of the division, providing a cushion against the grueling West, while a Mavericks win would keep them on track for a top‑four seed.
First splash, injury updates, and other storylines
- Who will unleash the first three‑pointer of the season? Some analysts peg D’Angelo Russell off the bench for the Spurs, while others give the honor to rookie Cooper Flagg.
- Injury watch: Darren Fox (Spurs) is out, Kyrie Irving (Mavericks) remains a dud, and the health of Luke Cornet will be monitored closely after a minor knee tweak in preseason.
- Coaching chess: Gregg Popovich (Spurs) will likely keep his rotation tight, whereas Jason Kidd (Mavericks) is expected to experiment with a small‑ball lineup if Irving sits.
Season outlook for both clubs
If Dallas can stay healthy and sync its veteran core, the team could eclipse the 50‑win mark, positioning itself as a legitimate contender against the likes of the Denver Nuggets and the Phoenix Suns. However, the Western Conference depth means that missteps early on could snowball.
For San Antonio, the primary goal is to translate defensive prowess into offensive efficiency. Wembanyama’s development will be the linchpin; if he can guard multiple positions and contribute double‑digit scoring, the Spurs could finish well above .500 despite their youth.
Historical rivalry and what the opener could signal
The Spurs‑Mavericks rivalry is relatively young but intensifying. Their last regular‑season meeting in April 2025 produced a 115‑108 Dallas win, featuring a 23‑point performance from Luka Dončić that reminded fans why the Mavericks were once the league’s elite. Since then, both franchises have undergone front‑office shuffles and roster turnover, making this opener a litmus test for the upcoming narrative.
Should the Spurs pull off an upset, it could signal a shift in power dynamics within the Southwest, forcing Dallas to re‑evaluate its reliance on veteran leadership. Conversely, a Mavericks victory would reaffirm the prevailing wisdom that experience still trumps potential in the NBA’s grind.
Frequently Asked Questions
How will Victor Wembanyama’s health affect the Spurs’ chances?
Wembanyama missed most of the 2024‑25 season with a foot injury, so his conditioning is under close scrutiny. If he can play at least 30 minutes and defend multiple positions, he gives San Antonio a distinct matchup advantage that could offset the Mavericks’ veteran depth.
What impact does Kyrie Irving’s possible absence have on Dallas?
Irving’s status is a wildcard. If he sits, the Mavericks will rely on D’Angelo Russell and Jaden Hardy to shoulder the playmaking load, which could slightly diminish their offensive rhythm but also allow for a more balanced scoring distribution.
Why are the betting odds favoring the Mavericks?
The odds reflect Dallas’s deeper roster, home‑court advantage, and a proven track record of winning in close games. Their 39‑43 record, despite being sub‑.500, still outperformed the Spurs’ 33‑49 mark, and sportsbooks factor in the Mavericks’ experience in high‑pressure situations.
Which player is most likely to score the first three‑pointer?
Analysts are split, but many lean toward rookie Cooper Flagg, who has already hit six threes in the preseason and enjoys a green‑light to shoot in early‑game situations.
What does this game mean for the Southwest Division standings?
A win for either side could set the tone for the division race. The Mavericks aim to reclaim a top‑four seed, while the Spurs need a strong start to avoid falling into the bottom tier early in the season.
